Now the battle for Aleppo is as good as over. With all its tragedy's and as yet unknown faith of the rebel and civilian survivors in the eastern part, I haven't seen much analysis on what Assad's next step and endgame will be. So I will give it a go.
First of all it is the question who is actually calling the shots here. Assad? Putin? Iran? The allies do not seem to be on the same page all the time.
Russia makes deals with Turkey that Iran and Assad are not part of, aware of or don't agree with. First on Operation Desert Shield and the faith of Al-Bab. Assad seems to oppose the Turks taking the city, although that may be token resistance for interior consumption. And now about the evacuation of eastern Aleppo which the Iranians seem to oppose.
Now Aleppo has fallen, what was a national rebellion has downgraded to provincial rebellions.
-Salafists of Ahrar and jihadist of AQ/Nusra(now Jabhat Fatah al-Sham)pretty much calling the shots in Idlib province.
-FSA/Western-supported rebels running the south around Deraa.
-Turkish proxy on the northern border also calling themselves FSA but not clear what their role will be beyond keeping Kurds from Afrin and Manbij separated.
Meanwhile the Kurds have set up a de facto independent area in the north and seem at least to have a sort of non-aggression pact with Assad. For the time being, that is. They may have had promises from Assad about future autonomy.
IS should be considered a foreign occupation. They are no party in any political solution for Syria. Assad may be happy to leave them to the Coalition, Kurds and possibly Hashd (popular mobilization militias) from Iraq after they've finished the Mosul battle. Recapturing Palmyra may be a matter of pride though. I hear rumors the Russians are pretty pissed off about it.
Assad will ideally want to reconquer his entire country but it very much remains to be seen if that's a viable option. He won't be able to do it without Russia and Iran and it is highly unlikely they will be committed for the duration of such a struggle.
More likely is, what I've already written in October 2015, that Russia will want to go for a political solution once they've reached a position of strength. The question is if we've reached that point now Aleppo has fallen.
I think the Russians thought they already reached that point before. In Februari when they closed the A'zaz corridor and they negotiated a cease-fire. Successive talks in Vienna didn't work out so the war commenced.
Now, with Aleppo, there is a new moment they might use to get a political solution. The big question is whether Iran and Assad himself will be on board.
My guess is that Russia will at one point force Assad somehow to accept a political solution including the FSA. Probably the ones in the south. Maybe a token form of democracy so Putin will look good in the West. Assad's own role in a post war scenario has always been the biggest stumbling block. But a Western weariness of the war and continuing wins by Assad are already caving the resolve against him staying
But where IS is definitely no party to any political solution for Syria on the account of being a foreign entity, Ahrar and Nusra are native Syrian.
I doubt though Assad/Russia/Iran will want to include them into a post war scenario but they might have no choice.
Getting them out of Idlib will be one hell of a fight. A fight I'm not sure the Russians and Iran are willing to take on.
